Australian Economic Data & RBA Rate History

Explore Australian CPI inflation, employment, GDP and housing data, RBA cash rate history and ASX expectations. Check sources, reference periods and release dates.

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Start with the evidence.

LATEST READINGS · EXPLORE ON DEMAND

Inflation

Published
Headline CPI · annual
4.3%
September 2026+0.3ppvs prior
Trimmed mean · annual3.6%
ABS · CPI28 Oct 2026Explore

Employment

Published
Unemployment · adjusted
4.7%
September 2026+0.1ppvs prior
Monthly employment change−39,300
ABS · Labour force15 Oct 2026Explore

Housing

Published
Mean value · quarterly change
−$8.2k
June Quarter 2026−$23.6kvs prior
National mean dwelling value$1,100,400
ABS · Dwellings8 Sep 2026Explore

Growth

Published
Real GDP · quarterly
0.4%
June 2026+0.1ppvs prior
Real GDP · annual2.1%
ABS · GDP2 Sep 2026Explore

Energy & external costs

Not covered by this assessment

Evidence and AI coverage are separate. Missing coverage ≠ zero effect. Oil can also weaken demand; fuel and CPI should not be counted twice. Shares are subjective allocations, not causal effects or probabilities.

Coverage from report · · This assessment has expired and is shown for reference only.

What does AI see in the evidence?

4 key drivers

This assessment has expired and is shown for reference only.

Headline CPI

Upward rate pressure

Inflation Pressure

Follow the evidence · explore the data

Unemployment rate

Downward rate pressure

Labour Market Cooling

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Real GDP

Mixed signals to weigh

Growth Mixed

Follow the evidence · explore the data

Consumer inflation expectations

Mixed signals to weigh

Expectations Context

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Explore AI scenarios: what could shift the outlook?

The rate cycle and market expectations

History frames the policy starting point; market pricing adds another perspective.

CASH RATE / THE LONG VIEW
Put today in a longer cycle.
4.60% · Current RBA targetCurrent RBA target
Hover or hold to inspect, or use ← →

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

1990-08-02 to 2026-10-29. Historical low 0.1%, high 14%. The solid line steps on RBA effective dates.The dashed line connects the current target with estimated post-meeting rates on official decision dates; these are not official forecasts.

Published dates. Estimated rates.Orange dots use official RBA decision dates and rates estimated from ASX monthly pricing. Connecting lines do not imply daily changes between meetings.

RBA targetMeeting outlook · estimatesMeeting estimates
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Key points · X date / Y value

Hold and drag to inspect · 96/106
12-month net change+1.00percentage points · since 29 Oct 2025
Next meeting estimate≈4.80%3 Nov 2026 · estimate
Current target4.60%RBA · as of 29 Oct 2026

Solid: official RBA targets on effective dates. Orange dots: estimated post-meeting overnight rates on published decision dates, not official RBA or ASX forecasts. Only meetings supported by published dates and sufficient data are shown. ASX settlement 29 Oct 2026.

❯ MARKET PRICING / IN CONTEXTASX · 29 Oct 2026
NEXT RBA MEETING / 3 Nov 2026

Markets lean toward a hike

80%
A 0.25-point increase4.60% 4.85%
20%Hold at 4.60%

Rate cycle context

The latest recorded rate change was an increase to 4.60% on 2026-09-30. The current rate is 4.60%; transmission effects still need to be assessed against inflation and employment.

Previous assessment with its original evidence

AI and market perspectives

The AI comparison with current market pricing needs reassessment. The original ASX date and probabilities are shown above.

Reading Australian economic data

Every assessment starts with evidence.

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