Next assessment pending Next assessment not yet published
Explore the policy trade-offs in the available economic signals. The next assessment will appear when published.
This assessment has expired and is shown for reference only.
Illustrative animation of related factors; the published update status is described above.
INFLATION × LABOUR Select a signal to explore the evidence
Headline 4.3% Underlying 3.6% Services 4.1% Unemployment 4.7% Monthly jobs change − 39,300
RBA Pending
OBSERVATIONS EVIDENCE MAP
The band marks the RBA's 2–3% inflation target.
Hours worked · monthly change Real GDP · quarterly change Real GDP · annual Wage price index · annual Nominal household spending value · monthly change Credit outstanding · annual USD per AUD Trimmed mean · monthly · Adjusted · monthly change Non-tradables prices · Annual change Rents · Annual change Underemployment rate · Seasonally adjusted Participation rate · Seasonally adjusted Job vacancies · Seasonally adjusted Non-farm labour productivity · Output per hour · annual Nominal unit labour costs · Non-farm · annual Real household consumption · Annual change Real household disposable income · Annual change Household saving ratio · Seasonally adjusted Public demand · Real · annual Import prices · Quarterly change · original Consumer inflation expectations · Year ahead · survey · quarterly record Ten-year inflation compensation · Bond yield spread · includes risk premia Outstanding owner-occupier rate · All institutions · variable · per annum New owner-occupier rate · All institutions · variable · per annum Outstanding owner-occupier · all-loan average · All institutions · mixed fixed and variable stock · per annum New owner-occupier fixed pool rate · Funded during the month · remaining fixed period ≤3 years · pool average · per annum Outstanding owner-occupier fixed pool rate · Remaining fixed period ≤3 years · pool changes do not imply repricing the same contract · per annum Brent crude spot price · Europe · USD per barrel · daily Published overnight cash rate · Reported interbank overnight benchmark · distinct from the target Effective cash target on report date · Same-day F1 target · paired with reported ON Overnight benchmark minus target · Non-missing values on the same report date only · no method inference Advertised bank transaction-account rate · F4 · $5,000 tier · advertised sample, not an applied customer rate Advertised bank bonus-savings rate · F4 · $10,000 tier · bonus eligibility requires a separate check Advertised online-savings rate · F4 · $10,000 tier · product terms require a separate check Advertised one-year term-deposit rate · F4 · $10,000 tier · new-deposit quote, not received income Paid household at-call deposit rate · F4.1 · outstanding at-call pool · not a particular bonus advertisement Paid household new term-deposit rate · F4.1 · balance-weighted new-deposit pool · not an advertised tenor sample
Market odds provide context; they do not replace an independent AI assessment.
Hike 0.25 pp 80%
Hold 20%
ASX · 29 Oct 2026 
